Here We Go

In 2016, Donald Trump executed a masterclass in faux populism, seizing the populist playbook from the establishment. He capitalized on the resentments of Middle America—jobs lost to global trade deals and wars fought by working-class kids—branding himself as the ultimate outsider who truly understood their struggles. It was political populism on steroids, and it worked perfectly.

Now, however, the narrative has shifted. Trump’s message has descended into the depths of the internet, filled with grievances only found in online chatrooms and niche subcultures. Instead of focusing on broad issues, he peddles conspiracy theories and personal feuds, narrowing his appeal as he fixates on his own victimhood. There’s also a contradiction at the core of his message: Trump claims he is ahead while insisting the system is rigged, positioning himself as both the winner and the victim of a conspiracy. This sets the stage for a “red mirage,” where early vote counts favor him but later tallies may shift, allowing him to claim a “stolen” election and sow further distrust in the process.

As for my prediction, I believe Harris is on track to secure over 300 electoral votes. I’m not conceding Iowa, despite the latest numbers, but there is enough evidence to declare this a loss for Trump. Pollsters can argue all they want, but I don’t buy their predictions of a 50/50 race. First, Roe v. Wade is a key issue and on the ballot in swing states, likely drawing more Democrats and women to the polls. Second, since 2016, Democrats have consistently outperformed polls, and I don’t expect that to change. Additionally, Trump’s campaign has been chaotic in recent weeks, and they haven’t effectively corrected their course since Biden entered the race. This is a few reasons why I don’t see Trump getting anywhere near 270 electoral votes.

What do you think? What are your predictions?